Bheja Fry : Can you please compare box-office economics of different era?
Q: Can you please compare box-office economics of different era?
A: After 1980, movies started releasing on all India bases. Metros and big cities of interiors theaters start getting parallel screening of movies on first week itself. Around 150-200 prints were released during 1980-1990. Number of prints increased further in 90’s for up to 350. As of now as many as 1500 prints released for any big movie. But hold on; now let’s calculate the real capacity in terms of footfalls. Single screens hold average capacity of 800 seats. In 90’s if any movie released on 300 prints, total capacity in terms of audience was approx. 2, 40,000 for entire week.
Where-as multiplexes hold an average capacity of 200 seats. If movie released on average 600 digital prints (for multiplexes) and 150 prints for single screens, It means Audience capacity for 600*200 = 120,000 for multiplexes and 120000 for single screens. This makes total audience capacity of 2, 40,000. This is exactly same as if movie release in 300 single screens alone. So basically Audience capacity of 100 single screen release = Audience capacity of 400 Multiplex prints.
Now come to ticket price, average ticket rates in 90’s was around Rs. 8/-. In 2010 Average ticket price is Rs. 100/- (Single Screen inclusive). So basically business should be approx. 12 times more. If occupancy rates remain same as of 90’s, First week collections for any movie released on 300 prints with 70%+ business was around 3.5 Crore. With similar occupancy rates, first week business of any movie with 600 prints at multiplexes and 150 single screen prints should be around 42 Crore.
With 750 prints release, best business in recent time was around 30 Crore. This is pretty much 12 crore less than average business of 90’s standards. Now come to second most dangerous part. There was great trending of movie in pre – 80’s and 90’s. We lost that trending now and industry best standard is 50% fall every week which is considered as consistent. It means any movie which was opened at 3.5 crore in 90’s was well ended upto 10-11 crore has now been reduced to 2.5 Crore opening and end at 5-6 Crore Maximum (Or you can say 30 Crore opening and end at 60-72 Crore maximum, but as per 90’s standard it should opened with 42 crore and end at 130-140 Crore).
Above analysis break the misconception that movies are now doing great business due to huge screenings in first week itself and hence returns are great in first three days which was not the case before multiplex era. Fact is that there’s hardly any difference of audience capacity of 90’s release and 2010 release. Despite equal capacity, now movies lost good trending with pathetic volume of audience who watch movie in theaters. In general, A super hit movie of 80’s and 90’s was watched by around 10-12 Crore audience. For example 90’s super hit movie HAHK which collected approx. 65 Crore was watched by 12 Crore audience. In 2010 Mega blockbuster Three idiots which collected 200 Crore at box-office has seen merely 4.5 Crore audience attendance.
Now we need to check if Average ticket rate of Rs. 100/- today is far more than Rs. 8/- of 90’s. If we go by currency value, Rs 8/- of 90’s is approx Rs. 45/- Now (if we go by many methods of standard conversion). So ticket prices are just 55% higher, but overall business is 500%+ lower. Average cost of movie in 90’s was 5-9 Crore. In current scenario it comes to 30-50 Crore approx (This is also normal budget of any big movie now). So basically investment is quite same, but returns are approx. 500% lower.